Bernstein Sees 31% Upside for Robinhood Stock: “The Chain Is Now Earnings”
The Call
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani reiterated an Outperform rating on Robinhood (HOOD) this week, setting a price target of $160 and arguing the stock has roughly 31% upside from current levels. The reasoning behind the call is unusual for a brokerage stock: Bernstein isn’t leaning primarily on trading volumes or subscription growth. It’s leaning on a blockchain Robinhood launched barely two months ago.
“The Chain Is Now Earnings”
That’s the phrase Bernstein used to summarize its thesis, and the fee data behind it is striking. Over the past 15 days, Robinhood Chain generated roughly $33 million in cumulative fees — enough to rank first among all blockchains over that window, ahead of Solana’s approximately $11 million and BNB Chain’s approximately $9 million. Since its July 1 launch, the chain has produced an estimated $39 million in cumulative fees altogether, and Bernstein projects that could scale to around $160 million annually by 2028 if current growth holds.
How the Money Actually Flows
Robinhood Chain is an Ethereum layer-2 built using Arbitrum’s technology, which means the fee economics are split three ways. Robinhood keeps roughly 90% of the fees generated on its chain. About 10% flows back to Arbitrum for providing the underlying technology. Less than 1% goes to Ethereum itself to cover data availability costs. That 90% retention rate is what makes the fee growth so directly relevant to Robinhood’s bottom line — unlike a typical exchange partnership or revenue-share deal, the company is capturing nearly all of the economic activity happening on its own network.
The Numbers Bernstein Is Watching
Beyond fees, Bernstein pointed to broader traction metrics: Robinhood Chain has accumulated approximately $1.5 billion in total value locked and more than $50 billion in cumulative decentralized exchange volume since launch. The value of tokenized stocks trading on the chain has grown from roughly $10 million to about $140 million over the past two months, suggesting the tokenized-equity use case Robinhood built the chain around is gaining real traction rather than sitting idle.
Why It Matters for the Stock
For a brokerage that has spent years diversifying away from pure trading commissions, a blockchain that’s already out-earning two of the most established layer-1 networks in crypto — after only ten weeks of operation — is a meaningfully different growth story than anything in Robinhood’s core business. Bernstein’s bet is that investors haven’t fully priced in what happens if that fee trajectory keeps climbing. Readers who want to understand how layer-2 blockchains, gas fees, and onchain revenue actually work can find foundational explainers in coin680’s Bitcoin Academy.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock price targets and analyst ratings are opinions, not guarantees — always do your own research before making investment decisions.